Twitter, FriendFeed and Facebook Are Over-Hyped. The Real Action Is Happening Somewhere Else.
If you follow the blogosphere (yukkkk), the Twitterati (eurghhhh), the Facebookers, or the FriendFeeders, you might be forgiven for believing that these social networks are where all the action is happening right now. For example, high-profile bloggers, tweeters, and Facebookers such as Robert Scoble, and Chief Mahooligan, Jason Calacanis are in love with Twitter at the moment, vying amongst themselves to see who can get the most action - either most followers or following the most people.
That’s great. I like both Robert and Jason a lot. They both enjoy impacting social networks. However, the truth is, not much of general interest is really happing on the above social networks right now.
People are getting bored of Facebook as they start to find it’s a pretty dully place to hang out (few people really care if their Zombie gets super-poked). Some are starting to use Facebook in ways that have some long-term value to them, but the trend I’m seeing is that many people are spending less time on Facebook today than they did a year go. Update: the stats at Compete.com don’t support my analysis - Facebook is still getting more popular
Twitter is simply terminally dull, IMHO, except in a few, highly specialised use cases e.g. spontaneous organisation of open-invitation parties. For the most part, people simply don’t pay attention to the tweets of people they follow. It’s like a conversation where no-one stops to breathe. And the more people tweet, the more people are starting to feel like they’re being spammed. I expect the new trend on Twitter will be to “unfollow” people.
FriendFeed is pretty new. It’s an aggrator for what’s happening on various social networks. It’s well-executed. It might be successful. It might not. Not sure how many people really know (or care) what an RSS feed is. Might be a bit niche. Might be aggrating a whole lot of stuff people really don’t care about.
So… if all these so-called “hot” social networks actually aren’t all that hot… where’s the real action happening? The answer is, I think, LinkedIn. Why do I think this? Because, in the last few months, I’ve noticed LinkedIn has reached a very particular, and rather important kind of tipping point. It’s a tipping point I saw happen with MySpace and Facebook when they were becoming super-hot; and also with YouTube too. What is this tipping point? Answer - it’s when large numbers of non-tech people are joining. Outside of the tech community, no-one I know has heard of Twitter or FriendFeed… and when I explain to them what they are, people see no value. Conversely, LinkedIn seems to have a genuine mass appeal… in fact, it’s got to the point where *non-tech* people have started telling me about LinkedIn and how great it is.
So there you have it. The hot social network right now surely isn’t Twitter; and I’d say, it just might actually be LinkedIn…
Update: Here’s some monthly people count graphs from Compete.com. Looks like LinkedIn is indeed more popular than Twitter and FriendFeed… and the trends seem to support my analysis.
however, the numbers for Facebook don’t support my analysis…
Asam Bashir wrote:
I’m not sure what you mean by real action, in terms of numbers? not seen any - LinkedIn would have limited appeal in the general population, it is a business tool after-all, why would Joe Public be interested in LinkedIn?
On the other hand I’m seeing a greater number of non-graduate types coming on to facebook now, beyond it’s original base of university students - greater age range. US and now UK politicians seem to have noticed and you see more sophisticated applications directly engaging people into making the news they want. First batch of early facebook apps where truly rubbish but there seem to be some quality ones now. Have you tried iLike for example? Lets you upload playlists from iTunes which is then used in a database to bring up selections it thinks you might like, all presented in an interesting way as side-bar in iTunes and linked to social networking aspect through the facebook end. Adding value to the over-all social networking aspect of facebook, what the objective of opening up the developer platform in facebook was about, and it’s working. Don’t see how LinkedIn can replicate this in the work/business market without developing a similar developer platform.
Facebook is now becoming what myspace had the potential to do. I think a lot more people are going to move from myspace to facebook as the platform develops. Myspace needs some radical redesign if it is to remain competitive but I don’t think the new owners get it……
Posted 03 Apr 2008 at 3:09 am ¶
simon wrote:
Re: numbers, see the update at the bottom of the blog. By real action, I mean that large numbers of non-tech people are aware of LinkedIn, and are using it.
Clearly, Facebook and MySpace achieved this a long time ago. However, I’m not finding that non-tech people raving about new Facebook apps. I’m finding that many people are nowhere near as interested in Facebook as they used to be. Having said that, you’re right - there are also people doing interesting increasingly interesting things with Facebook.
With Twitter and Friendfeed, I’m finding that non-tech people aren’t interested or aware of these services. That’s a dramatic difference compared to YouTube, MySpace, Facebook etc.
I *am* finding that non-tech people are using LinkedIn. Clearly it’s a business tool - but the “professional worker” niche is huge.
What does all this mean? That the digerati hype around Twitter and FriendFeed might be misplaced… and that LinkedIn might be underhyped.
Posted 03 Apr 2008 at 6:29 am ¶
simon wrote:
The latest numbers from Compete.com actually suggest that Facebook popularity is still on an upward trend.
Posted 05 Apr 2008 at 8:06 am ¶
S.P. Gass wrote:
Simon, this is a very well written post and I agree with your analysis. I wrote a critical piece on Facebook a little while ago on my own blog. One interesting factiod noted is that Facebook popularity may be on a downward trend already in the U.K.: http://lowtechtimes.com/2008/03/17/facebook-accounts-are-completely-unnecessary/
Also, of the social networking properties, I agree with you that LinkedIn may offer the most value. I actually know people who received great job offers directly as a result of being on LinkedIn.
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 3:13 am ¶
simon wrote:
S.P., one question is whether the first few months of the year were just a blip. For sure, people are getting bored with “features” like poke, and worthless apps like “SuperPoke”.
However, as Asam suggests, there may be more valuable apps coming along… and Facebook is working to make the core site more valuable as a genuine “social utility”.
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 9:33 am ¶
Asam Bashir wrote:
S.P., good point about real value of LinkedIn and people getting jobs etc, but I know people who get laid because of their facebook profile, that’s got to be worth something..
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 6:06 pm ¶
simon wrote:
Wow, Asam, I didn’t know you knew Mark Zuckerberg…
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 7:46 pm ¶
Asam Bashir wrote:
Yeah yeah, but lets not forget the basic animalistic features of the biology of the market, and it’s value, let us also remember what the killer feature for the first drive of the consumer Internet was about…
Posted 06 Apr 2008 at 10:01 pm ¶