Tracking The Success of The 13949712720901ForOSX Campaign

There’s an Internet blogger campaign that’s just started to try to get Apple to give out some information about Java 6 on Leopard. It’s called “Vote For Java 6 On Leopard“. To take part, people are being asked to include the string:

13949712720901ForOSX

in a blog. I’ve no idea how many “Java Mac OS X “bloggers there are… so have to decided to use this blog post to track the campaign in a fairly adhoc way. I’ll keep it updated during the next few days…

Here’s the first count using major general search engines….

  • Nov 5, 14.30 GMT
    • Google, 434 hits; Yahoo, 152 hits; Microsoft Live, 562 hits

This little survey will also serve to check how fast the major search engines update their indexes. Live searches are at the following links: Google; Yahoo; Live; Google Blog Search.

The next update will have to be in a couple of hours at the earliest, after the US West Coast wakes up. In the meantime, unfortunately, I have to be AFK for a while - I have the financially painful job of going to get four new tyres put on my 911… It’s four wheel drive, and they always all wear out at the same time. Ouch! Hopefully, the tracking of this campaign won’t miss too much action in the meantime…

Updates:

  • Nov 5, 14.30 GMT
    • Google, 434 hits; Yahoo, 152 hits; Microsoft Live, 562 hits
  • Nov 6, 08.30 GMT (adjusted way of measuring hits, see comments)
    • Google, 150 hits (473 by old measure); Yahoo, 191 hits (216, old); Live, 103 hits (115 old)
    • Google Blog Search, 56 hits (down from 58 yesterday).
  • Nov 6, 16.45 GMT
    • Google, 148 hits; Yahoo, 78 hits; Live, 134 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 61 hits
  • Nov 7, 06.45 GMT
    • Google, 169 hits; Yahoo, 127 hits; Live, 134 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 67 hits
  • Nov 7, 18.05 GMT
    • Google, 212 hits; Yahoo, 127 hits; Live, 152 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 66 hits
  • Nov 7, 23.15 GMT
    • Google, 246 hits; Yahoo, 128 hits; Live, 152 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 69 hits
  • Nov 8, 06.45 GMT
    • Google, 262 hits; Yahoo, 156 hits; Live, 152 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 68 hits
  • Nov 8, 18.20 GMT
    • Google, 273 hits; Yahoo, 157 hits; Live, 158 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 72 hits
  • Nov 11, 09.50 GMT
    • Google, 327 hits; Yahoo,  275 hits; Live, 212 hits
    • Google Blog Search, 61 hits

Interesting… there don’t seem to be huge numbers Java-Leopard bloggers out there who care about Java 6 on Leopard… Although, having said that, I’m not sure what kind of numbers I was expecting to see…

Trackbacks & Pings

  1. My Vote for Java6 on leopard-13949712720901FOROSX « Codeitch- a non coders attempts at writing code on 06 Nov 2007 at 11:41 am

    [...] I came across this internet campaign to cast a vote for Java 6 on leopard. [...]

Comments

  1. henry story wrote:

    To get the real number you can’t just look at the estimated number on the first page of search results. Those are “estimated” because the large search engines - and I know I worked at AltaVista - try to spare every cpu cycle they can. So they only give you an estimate back.

    To get the full count one way is to try to go to the last page. There may be other tricks that to force a count.

    So for example Google search currently reports 434 results, but if I try to get to page 14

    http://www.google.com/search?q=13949712720901ForOSX&hl=en&pwst=1&start=140&sa=N

    the result is 137 pages.

    The blog search on google is also interesting because it will tend to have less duplicates.

    http://blogsearch.google.com/blogsearch?q=13949712720901ForOSX&ie=UTF-8&scoring=d

    currently I get 58 blog posts there.

    The number is probably somewhere in between that and the google search number.

    Anyway: get voting out there! you can make a difference!

  2. D wrote:

    I did my duty !
    13949712720901ForOSX

  3. simon wrote:

    Henry - you’re absolutely right about the search engine results. I will ammend how I report the stats at the next update…

  4. henry story wrote:

    Yes, the number has slowed down quite dramatically after the weekend.

    Some explanations:

    - There are not that many people who are both java developers and bloggers. ( any numbers there? )
    - A lot of Apple Java developers are convinced that Apple is going to be releasing Java 6 soon
    (If Apple does not, I do predict a resurgence of blog posts on this)
    - Some people don’t blog, they just adjust their purchasing decisions. So managers in certain roles will
    just not buy Apple for their developers.
    - The message was not clear enough - in that case feel free to post better blogs with the same message

  5. M wrote:

    Good idea. But, what the heck getting new tires (tyres) on your “911″ has to do with a Vote for Java 6 on Leopard post is beyond me.

  6. simon wrote:

    Well, “M”, I don’t know who you are, but I guess there are many, many things that are beyond you.

    First, this blog is for people that know me, as well as people that don’t. Not everything I write is going to be relevant to you. Feel free to ignore the parts that don’t apply. In fact, feel free to ignore the blog completely if you don’t like it.

    Second, I had thought, given that Macs are so popular with Mac OS X market share going through the roof, that the numbers on this campaign were going to be accelerating rapidly. So I thought I was going to have to sample a lot of data points to capture the growth curve. I was trying to let people know I would be afk for a while. How wrong I was about the campaign growth rate though!

    Third, in Britiain, we spell the word tyre t y r e. Given that we invented the English language, I think we’re entitled to spell our words they way we like.

    Fourthly, if you don’t like any of the above, feel free to go fuck yourself ;-)

  7. simon wrote:

    Henry, here’s my guess…

    I suspect it’s that there aren’t many Apple developers in general (certainly less than a million in total world-wide), and of those Apple developers that there are, relatively few use Java.

    And of those that use Java, most have been long-term users of Java on Mac OS, and so know that Apple will likely release Java 6 in due course.

  8. henry story wrote:

    There is one further explanation. Of the developers on OSX, a large portion must have succumbed to signing some NDA or other. So they may not feel so comfortable speaking out.

  9. simon wrote:

    Yes, that’s true - Apple does require every developer that signs up to the ADC to agree to non-disclosure of information.

    I will say, though, that Mac OS X developers I speak to privately really aren’t too concerned - they’re confident that Java 6 will be released in due course. The last test report I had, there were more than a few issues that still had to be fixed - so some work still to do to get Java 6 working well.

    Leopard development seems to be continuing apace - there’s a Leopard 1.1 developer preview out already which seems notable for the inclusion of proper ZFS.

  10. henry story wrote:

    Well it’s been picking up today again. I count 12 more blog posts…

  11. simon wrote:

    Yes! The biggest numeric increase is actualy on regular Google web search… Do you have any idea why that is? That is - is it Google indexing better than Yahoo or Live? Or is it that Google is worse at removing near-duplicate pages i.e. near-identical content at different URLs? Or something else?

    There’s no doubt that are real differences between Google, Yahoo and Live.

  12. henry story wrote:

    We are at 105 now on google groups. Which is not bad btw, if you compare it to the other bugs on the Java Bug database.
    It certainly makes it into the top 25 bug list:
    http://bugs.sun.com/bugdatabase/top25_bugs.do

  13. cbare wrote:

    Nov 30th. Google says:

    Results 1 - 10 of about 48,100 for 13949712720901ForOSX.

    Take that Steve Jobs!

  14. simon wrote:

    cbare, the actual number of results in Google is currently 288. Notice Google says “about 48,100″ i.e. it’s an “estimate”… and not a very accurate one ;-)

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