Simon’s Blog

Comments

1. Asam Bashir wrote:

   I guess you’d need 7.2Mbps to send your 5 megapixel picture to your buddy. If I ever did need to do some serious typing on a phone, I’d much rather have a folding external full size keyboard where I could use both hands then a constrained compromise.

   Yah, can’t wait to see the killer application some third party developer will produce for this Samsung…..

   Posted 10 Feb 2007 at 5:00 pm ¶

2. simon wrote:

   You need HSDPA for a modern mobile Internet experience. I don’t think you can ignore the fact that iPhone doesn’t have HSDPA, or even *any* kind of 3G.

   I agree that a folding external keyboard is good for *serious* typing. However, if you want to use a phone for email, then it needs a way of entering text that’s always with the phone.

   Now, if what Steve Jobs said in the iPhone presentation was true - that the iPhone screen keypad is better than physical QWERTY phone keypads, then that’s great. From what I saw in Steve’s demo, though, the jury is still out there. It sure didn’t look that great in the demo.

   As for phones being open. It’s not just about “killer” mass market applications. It’s about serving niches well; and only third parties will be able to do that.

   I think Apple’s views on the open/closed issue are, in part, informed by the fact that the US has historically be so behind the rest of the world when it comes how people want to use their phones. It’s not that long ago that, in the US, most people hadn’t even heard of SMS texts, let alone used them. And still, in America, there are many people that say things like, “I just want a phone that makes calls”.

   The point is: some people think phones will evolve to be powerful mobile computers that can run a huge diversity of applications; and some people don’t. The ones that don’t simply have their heads in the sand… it’s already happening.

   And, which ever way you look at it, Steve Jobs spoke a bunch of nonsense on the topic of 3rd-party apps in his post-keynote interviews. He may have had his reasons; but there’s no getting away from the fact it was BS.

   Now I’m sure lots of people *will* want an iPhone; it’s a great device, and it’s hard to see the iPhone being anything other than a big success. But the “closed thing”, and the lack of HSDPA, are deal-breakers for me.

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 9:03 am ¶

3. Asam Bashir wrote:

   Once again, you have to view the iPhone that jobs demonstrated as Apple’s introduction into the market. I’m pretty sure they’re developing a 3G phone for the European market and the exact specifications will depend on which carrier they use.

   You have to remember that Apple is a dynamic company that can and does react very rapidly to the market needs. Its the only computer company that can make such rapid changes. It would not take significant development to add a keyboard to the iPhone if Apple thought it could better serve and capitialise from a certain niche market.

   This is just the first model Apple has demonstrated and already every single phone maker is using it as the bench mark from which all other phones will be judged. You have to admit, that’s pretty impressive just taken on it’s own.

   Regarding your concerns about serving niche markets with an open system, well, simbian has been out for ages and what revolution to the industry has that brought about? With open systems comes open confusion and lack of a co-operative stratergy to deliver refined products and services. The mobile market is exactly in the mess it finds itself in because there are so many different opinions about what you should be able to do with a mobile phone which then becomes diluted into what services the carriers can sell you.

   For Apple the basic questions are what would make a users experience better and more efficient. Rather then a body blow to the iPhone, this Samsung phone represents nothing more then a whimper in the face of paradigm shifting entry of Apple to the mobile communications market…

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 3:48 pm ¶

4. simon wrote:

   I think the iPhone is an amazing “Version 1″ product.

   However, in regard of the success of open systems, Symbian isn’t the best example. A better example is Java ME. There are over a billion Java-enabled mobile phones out there.

   Thats 1,000,000,000 mobile phones with the Java platform on them. Apple has a long way to go before it ships a billion iPhones. They haven’t even sold one yet.

   The mobile market is in the state it’s in because the carriers are having difficulty with business models surrounding applications and data; and because handsets are still evolving so rapidly, the Java ME platform has become pretty fragmented.

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 4:46 pm ¶

5. Asam Bashir wrote:

   I wonder how many of those billion mobile users actually considered if the phone they were buying supported Java ME and if that was a factor is the buying decision. I also wonder how many Java ME applications are being used, bought and upgraded by the same users. I’m not talking about having the ability to use Java ME platform, but real world use. Yeah sure I have Java ME on my phone, but I don’t use it. I know there are applications I can buy for it, but they’re just not the kind of applications I’d pay for. All of the applications I use on my phone are built into the system, just like on the iPhone. One of the biggest earners of third party applications on mobile phones is ring tones, and you can bet, Apple will have some funky ways of buildingand selling their own..

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 5:12 pm ¶

6. simon wrote:

   I think maybe you missed that Apple *is* actually intending to sell after-market applications for iPhone; and is intending not only to develop them themselves, but also for third parties to develop them.

   It’s just that the system looks like being closed. In other words, Apple will seemingly control the availability of applications for iPhone.

   As for the size of the market for downloaded Java ME software for mobiles, I believe it’s between $3B and $4B per year, representing hundreds of millions of copies of individual applications. That obviously doesn’t include downloads of free software.

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 5:56 pm ¶

7. Asam Bashir wrote:

   Yes I understand Apple’s postion and perfectly understand their need to control the user experience, but what killer Java ME app is going to make me want to buy this Samsung phone instead of an iPhone? What percentage of that Java ME market of $3-4B is games? Apple is already selling games for iPods through iTunes store, and that’s already a bigger market then all of Jave ME put together…..

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 7:41 pm ¶

8. simon wrote:

   The market for iPod games is bigger than the market for Java ME games? No - not even close.

   Even the revenues from the whole iTunes music store don’t yet come close to matching the total revenues from Java ME software. At the moment, I think Apple take something over $1B a year from the iTunes music store.

   I doubt *any* Java ME app is going to make you want to buy the Samsung phone instead of the iPhone - you’ve clearly set your heart on an iPhone.

   But, I am saying there’s a chance that the Samsung phone could give the iPhone a run for its money, and may even outsell it.

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 8:26 pm ¶

9. Asam Bashir wrote:

   It’s got nothing to do with my heart being set on an iPhone, I’m open to any device which is easy to use, in an intuitive manner, and that will actually provide the services I’d be interested in.

   You still didn’t answer my question of how much of the current Java ME market consists of games.

   Clearly if you make the title of your blog, “Samsung F700 delivers body blow to iPhone,” then I’m going to question your logic here. You’re trying to compare a v1.0 beta product, which represents Apple’s entry into the mobile market, with a niche model produced by a veteran with established relationships with carriers.

   I have no doubt that indeed this Samsung may outsell the iPhone in the short term, but over a 5 year outlook I think Apple’s slow and steady progress will see some huge effects on the whole industry, which is why established manufacturers are taking a non-shipping product so seriously.

   In five years time who knows what kind of technology and user input we might have access to, maybe the processors of those days will be able to run a full size version of Mac OS X and allow us to be done with the keyboard all together by sophisitcated voice recognition. The point is, when viewing the market over this time scale, the only real contender to Apple remains Microsoft. Hardware producers like Nokia, Samsung, Sony-Ericson, LG, they just don’t do software well. No matter how hard they try they don’t have what it takes to develop software in the way Apple and Microsoft can. You’re the one always talking up the possibilities and opportunities provided by a truely converged mobile device, I just can’t see Java ME or Simbian being the platform from which such a device evolves from. We know what happens when you give a bunch of developers some open protocols, just look at the sad state of Linux deployment on the consumer desktop….

   Posted 11 Feb 2007 at 11:44 pm ¶

10. Asam Bashir wrote:

    Just google up “Samsung F700,” it seems the whole world of I-hate-Apple fanboys are all saying the same thing in the blogosphere, but what I say to them is, go waste your money on an F700, but when the iPhone is shipping, you’ll all secretly be wishing you had one, come June, the only gadget anyone will be interested in will be an Apple product. This whole Samsung S700 vs iPhone debate is laughable, the only thing it shows is how worried the rest of the industry is….

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 12:23 am ¶

11. simon wrote:

    To answer your question clearly about the Java ME market… the $3B-$4B figure I quoted is for games sales. I don’t have any good figures for other types of software e.g. custom enterprise software.

    I don’t understand your point about people “secretly wishing” they had an iPhone. Surely, if people want an iPhone, they’ll buy one.

    I think it’s wrong to label people that say that iPhone will have some serious competition as “I-hate-Apple-fanboys”.

    The truth is that iPhone has some great things going for it - unique gesture-based UI; high-resolution screen (means best mobile web-browser); slim form factor; auto-landscape mode etc. However, it also has some negatives: lack of Java ME support; a lack-lustre feature-set is another; and unnattractive commercial terms (2-year contract plus high purchase price).

    Also, re: “We know what happens when you give a bunch of developers some open protocols”…

    Errrrr… you do know that Mac OS X is based on the Open Source Unix, FreeBSD? And that some of the neat features in the new Mac OS X (ZFS and DTrace) are based around ports from the Open Source Unix, Solaris?

    Apple doesn’t seem to share your view of using Open Source software…

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 7:48 am ¶

12. Asam Bashir wrote:

    That’s not the point I was making, of course the core of Mac OS X, Darwin, is based on Open Source, and yes there are a lot of advantages, both in terms of development, and security, I’m not arguing against that. For a time Darwin PPC was also available to the Open Source community and there has been much debate after the Intel transition, as Apple has choosen to not provide an Open Source version of Darwin X86 - but that’s a whole different debate and set of circumstances….

    The Java ME community or even Simbian has parallels with the progress of Linux. We could all talk about the benefits of Linux but at the end of the day, it has even now only provided software of interest to certain niche markets again. No matter how hard they try they just can’t penetrate the consumer desktop market right? and why is that? Because again within the Linux communities there are so many opinions of what a desktop should be like. It’s no use giving end users an infinate number of options of how to configure because they’re not interested in reading a ton of readmes and Linux has done nothing to break the monopoly of Microsoft. This is the same mistake being made in the Java ME and Simbian communities, the choices are made by the tech mindset, the developers and enterprise providers, who like it or not, don’t *get* human user interface issues. The problem is that whilst this continues, the only one benefiting from this confusion is Microsoft which can then push out Windows Mobile 6, or the iPhone OS X rip off, which will be peddled out as Zune OS.

    Right now, the only company that has a chance to rectifiy the imbalance created by the illegal monopoly is Apple. As I’ve said before, the choices being made right now by Apple are all defined by this epic battle. In a world where Microsoft wasn’t so powerful, Apple could promote and lead Open Source communities and protocols, but it would be a loosing battle. The only way Apple has a chance of beating Microsoft is playing it by it’s own rules, and yes, it will be a dirty fight, but judge Apple once the Monopoly is broken, not now, in the middle of it’s biggest war, because what Apple does will ultimately be of benefit to the whole industry.

    The point about people ’secretly wishing’ they had an iPhone again relates to the type of users we’re talking about, the tech mindset, the geeky bloggers, the sysadmins, the IT buyers, the ones who are part of the Microsoft ecosystem or Linux wide-boys who make choices dependant on enterprise deployment. Whats good for enterprise deployment isn’t what’s good for a consumer market such as mobile communications. An average mobile phone user is not going to spend time engaged in blogging the merrits of Java ME, they make a purchase decision based on other factors, on the recommendation of the tech mindset who they have to trust. What they don’t realise is that this same tech mindset has other priorities apart from ensuring the end user has a clean human interface. So it’s not as simple as buying what you wish, the decision isn’t even yours in most cases, it’s defined by the industry and fed to the masses.

    If the Java ME and Simbian communities could have changed the market that would have been great, but they haven’t produced results, all they’re doing is giving Microsoft easy pickings.

    A converged mobile computing device of the sort you envisage reguires not only good hardware, but also a full OS, what platform apart from Apple has what it takes to take on Microsoft in this respect?

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 2:42 pm ¶

13. Asam Bashir wrote:

    http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2007/tc20070209_857229.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_technology

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 8:27 pm ¶

14. Asam Bashir wrote:

    Hmmmm, tried to post that as a link and think it got mistaken for spam - interesting article on Apple casual gaming stratergy. Guess you’re busy removing telnet from your machines

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 8:45 pm ¶

15. simon wrote:

    Interesting article - thanks for the link. Mobile phone gaming is indeed big business… as I was saying… on the Java ME platform. Globally, it’s around $4B and growing.

    I should imagine that, after the disaster of iPod games, Apple will - in reality - find it quite hard to find developers for iPhone games. Especially so, with the lack of “hard” input methods on iPhone; because gaming (either native embedded OS X, or Java ME) on a touch-screen device will be pretty lame. You need real buttons, and a real joystick to play casual games.

    Sure, they could design a few games where the touch-screen interface will work well (and it would be worth doing those)… but *in general* you need buttons and a joystick. That’s one of the reasons so many mobile phones have joysticks… to enable the Java ME games to be playable.

    And, for all its currently fragmented nature, the reason the Java ME platform works well for games is that it provides a relatively consistent, and *widely deployed* platform.

    Want to write a Java ME game? There are over a *billion* potential customers. And, increasingly the phone hardware supports better games, and the platform has the chance to become less fragmented.

    Want to write a iPhone game? Right now, there are zero iPhone customers; plus, the iPhone isn’t a mass-market device (it’s a high-end phone); and there’s no joystick or buttons. Nope… not too many takers I don’t think…

    (Actually, Samsung has messed up here too, by not including a joystick on the keyboard)

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 9:25 pm ¶

16. Asam Bashir wrote:

    You keep missing the main points

    1. Current iPod games will probably work straight away on iPhone. Whilst gaming may not be a high priority for the first iPhone, Apple has time to build up the casual gaming partners using exisiting iPod specifications.

    2. Apple only started looking at casual gaming opportunities very recently, the development tools it would provide will output to all its products, iPod, iPhone, apple TV

    3. Stop thinking of the iPhone as just the example shown in MacWorld, this is just the first of many, each will be customised for specific niche markets and different specifications according to the carrier it selects and the users it will target. So already we know there is one iPhone for the US market on cingular, this is not the phone they’ll use for Europe and Asia. Also, it was well rumored before the offical announcement that Apple was actually developing two iPhones. The one demonstrated is the smartphone, but there is still expected to be a cheaper, less feature rich model that will also be expected to be carried by Cingular

    4. Sure, some games need a joystick and buttons, but a hell of a lot, don’t, just think of all those card games. Even so, buttons and joysticks can be added to more consumer orientated iPhone versions. The iPhone and Cingular contracts demonstrated are geared to exisiting BlackBerry/smart phone types.

    5. The iPhone has three kinds of motion and physical sensors, think Wii, these are new opportunities for gaming input. Well not even new, I’ve had apps and silly programs on my PowerBook that uses the internal motion sensors for ages - If I move my PowerBook around I can use it like a light sabor….

    6. I can play a lot of games with just my trackpad and one button, actually if I turn on clicking, I don’t even need another button, what’s the difference between input on a trackpad and a multi-gesture input screen?

    The point is, Apple has all the hardware and software pieces ready to tackle multiple markets and niches. It won’t have a fixed plan, it will watch and react to comments its gets back from the industry and as such view the iPhone as a dynamic and evolving work-in-progress..

    Interesting Nokia 3GSM web-cast, I haven’t kept up with DVB-H progress, €7 for the chipset, would be nice in the Euro iPhone iteration, BBC already trialing in Oxford, must be something all UK carriers are thinking about…..

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 10:53 pm ¶

17. Asam Bashir wrote:

    Oh, and forgot, I’ve seen far better games made in Flash then Java ME anyway….

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 10:57 pm ¶

18. Asam Bashir wrote:

    F520 got Joy Stick, but yah, like Samsung gonna be able to produce something better then OS X in 6 months, I don’t think so, even Microsoft with all it development couldn’t make anything better then Mac OS X in 5 years, and next month only thing anyone will talk about is Leopard….

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 11:41 pm ¶

19. Asam Bashir wrote:

    
    

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 11:49 pm ¶

20. Asam Bashir wrote:

    http://electronista.macnn.com/content/0702/samsungultraf520-tall.jpg

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 11:50 pm ¶

21. Asam Bashir wrote:

    http://www.electronista.com/articles/07/02/12/samsung.ultra.smart.f520/

    Posted 12 Feb 2007 at 11:51 pm ¶

22. Asam Bashir wrote:

    You know what, the whole button thing is a distraction, I forgot something, it’s called the iPod adaptor. You know one of the main reasons the iPod is so succesfull is because there is such a huge range of after market products for it, this alone is worth millions of dollars and supports a whole ecosystem of iPod accessory companies, just take a look at the iPod accessory department of the Apple store,

    http://store.apple.com/Apple/WebObjects/ukstore.woa/wa/RSLID?mco=3C04CB74&nclm=AccessoriesiPod

    Name me one product in history, apart from computers, that has so many accessories.

    So long term my arguments are still valid, Apple can and will make different iPhone versions filling up the various niche markets one-by-one, in the short term however, any deficiencies in the available iPod models will be filled in by the accessories.

    Take this as an example, it’s a halfway house to the iPhone,

    http://www.blueye.co.uk/english/index.php

    Nice idea by a little UK start-up.

    The only phone company that has done anything even remotely similar has been Sony-Ericsson - remember the little bluetooth-controlled car, and the snap on gadget for Z600 which made it into a gaming pad? I could think up about about 20 killer gadgets and accessories for the iPhone right now.

    This is exactly what Sony-Ericsson are trying to emulate, just look at there accessories, a can see a lot of iPod accessory rip-offs here,

    http://www.sonyericsson.com/spg.jsp?cc=gb&lc=en&ver=4000&template=pp1&zone=pp&view=accessories#view=accessories&cdl=0&detail=0&cmp=0&acc_cid=0&cid=0&pid_type=accessory&acc_pid=0&pid=10814

    Posted 13 Feb 2007 at 3:17 am ¶

23. simon wrote:

    @16

    1. Straight away? Not likely. Hardware different e.g. different screen resolutions, iPhone doesn’t have click wheel.

    2. Again, not likely.

    3. I’m not thinking of iPhone as just one model. I’m saying the currently announced iPhone isn’t a great gaming platform.

    4. I agree there are some types of games that don’t need a joystick and “hard” buttons.

    5. Wii would be a total disaster if the video screen for the game was on the controller.

    6. See point 4.

    Not sure if these are “main points” though. I think the main point is that Apple wants to own a proprietary gaming platform, and own the distribution channel. Just like games consoles. That’s a great way to maximise revenues and profits… *if*, and only *if*, you can create a platform and channel that’s attractive to developers. This strategy has the potential to be a total disaster though… if all the good games end up on a competing platform.

    It will actually be interesting to see how all this plays out. Microsoft has a huge advantage here - if they can get their act together, they could really leverage Xbox and Xbox Live for casual Zune gaming. Zune 1 is an embarassment. Zune 2 needs to be a big step forward. I’m not sure MS will get their act together any time soon though… after all, Windows Mobile 6 is a pretty dull when compared to the iPhone OS.

    @17.

    Currently, there is no market for Flash Lite mobile games. There’s a number of reasons for that. However, good mobile games can be developed using either Java ME or Flash Lite. It’s just that there aren’t many Flash Lite games yet.

    Posted 13 Feb 2007 at 7:06 am ¶

24. Asam Bashir wrote:

    Resolution independence is something Apple has been working very hard at for Leopard, it’s a sure thing this technlogy will filter through to the rest of the product lines.

    But yeah, we have to wait for Leopard release to get a better picture of where this is all going.

    With at least 3 Arm cores, hardware wise the iPhone is more then equiped CPU wise to deal with very high quality gaming experience.

    http://www.eetimes.com/news/design/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=197004232

    I guess it early day’s but I don’t see a lot of accessories for Zune yet, Microsoft is really running an up-hill battle now. I really hope Apple patents for the multi-gesture interface hold up, its the key to success of iPhone.

    But from 3GRS, what I’m taking is how every single phone manufacurer has tried to battle the iPhone, that’s pretty remarkable and all this publicity is nothing but good news for Jobs.

    Regarding games ending up on a competing platform, hope Jobs remembers that Halo was a Mac game before it became Xbox.

    I’ll leave a discussion of exiciting possibilities for converged mobile services in Europe for another day, don’t want to be accused of trolling your blog here, but I’m sure you understand my enthusiasm for geeking out on such matters

    Posted 13 Feb 2007 at 4:44 pm ¶

25. lee wrote:

    The f700 doesn’t have 802.11b. I think given the availability of 3g/4g cell networks in the us vs. the penetration of starbucks with wifi hotspots in the us, you’ll find the iphone has better high speed access than the f700 about 90% of the time.

    Posted 19 Feb 2007 at 5:55 am ¶

26. simon wrote:

    Lee, the US networks have been rolling out 3G pretty agressively in recent months. Cingular’s HSDPA network is now in many cities in the US.

    Your 90% estimate might have been correct 12 months ago. It’s probably not true today…

    Posted 19 Feb 2007 at 7:20 am ¶

27. bob wrote:

    iPhone is not as good as people think. its a touchscreen with 2MPx. its made by apple so no wonder why its the first to use this opperating system. what would apple have used Windows mobile? how useful is the accelerometer? are you going to spend all day rotating your phone? although it has good memory, it lacks a card slot. Java (and maybe Flash) will not work on this (even basic phones have this feature). it lacks 3G (which several of the newer phones have got). i have not noticed any games on this phone and almost every phone even phones which dont have color have games. it lacks basic features most phones have. your paying $499 - $599 with a two year contract! Apple has no experience in the phone industry. you have to use iTunes for loading music and video. no other phone does this and this just allows apple to make even more profit. you can not use a stylus, or gloves or anything other than your fingers when you touch it, so its sure to get greasy. it does not sync using WiFi. it does not support wireless sync via Bluetooth. the virtual keys make it slower to use than a Blackberry. iPhone does not include any speed dial features.
    so why buy iPhone instead of another brand when you are prepared to pay just as much or more for the iPhone? you should not

    Posted 19 Jun 2007 at 7:22 pm ¶

28. yash wrote:

    F520 got Joy Stick, but yah, like Samsung gonna be able to produce something better then OS X in 6 months, I don?t think so, even Microsoft with all it development couldn?t make anything better then Mac OS X in 5 years, and next month only thing anyone will talk about is Leopard?.

    yash vijayvargiya

    Posted 10 Aug 2008 at 3:23 am ¶

29. yash wrote:

    iPhone is not as good as people think. its a touchscreen with 2MPx. its made by apple so no wonder why its the first to use this opperating system. what would apple have used Windows mobile? how useful is the accelerometer? are you going to spend all day rotating your phone? although it has good memory, it lacks a card slot. Java (and maybe Flash) will not work on this (even basic phones have this feature). it lacks 3G (which several of the newer phones have got). i have not noticed any games on this phone and almost every phone even phones which dont have color have games.

    Posted 10 Aug 2008 at 3:26 am ¶

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