Mobile Web Set For Step Changes In Usability
At the end of 2005, I gave my predictions about the mobile web for 2006. I said
- Mobile phone and handsets and phone browser software will take a leap forward
- Moble phone operators will begin to reduce pricing for data packages on both 2.5G and 3G, as they realise that their future profits depend on new mobile phone software (such as web browsers) driving volume data usage
- The walls on walled gardens that some mobile operators impose on their users will start to come down
All have these predictions have proved correct. You can now easily get: high-quality web browser software on mobile devices e.g. the S60 browser and Opera; all-you-can-eat high-speed mobile data packages can be had for around $40 USD per month; and the walled gardens have come down. This is all really good news: today, if you want to use the web on a mobile device you can.
However, the mobile web is still only for early adopters: my guess is that pages view on the web made via mobile devices probably accounts for less than 0.1% of total page views. Why? Because handset technology is just not good enough There are two issues: data entry; and screen resolution.
For the mobile web to see mass adoption, we need: a great method of data entry - probably in the form of highly usable QWERTY keypads (which we don’t have now); and possibly even more important, we need higher screen resolutions on mobile devices. As we approach the end of 2006, 320×240 resolution screens are starting to become widespread, even on mass market devices. This was what we needed for the early adopters, and for niche mass market applications. For everyone and everything else, we need at least 640×480 resolution screens (ideally 800×600 and greater).
This screen resolution issue is a massive problem because, as we move to move higher resolutions, the physical size of the screen will become too large for use in mass market mobile devices. The most likely solution to this will come from flexible LCD panels that can be rolled and unrolled.
The technology development required for this means that it’s hard to see the mobile web experience being as good as the experience people have on their home computers before 2010. Having said that, there are some really interesting devices that could be made with today’s technology, and with technology that will be available next year.
For example, a device like the HTC Tytn (see above), but with a 640×480 screen, instread of the 320×240 screen we have today, would be a pretty damn good device for accessing the web on the move. Especially if they can make it a bit slimmer than the model on the market today, which is a bit chunky.
Over the next three years, then, I think we’re set for an explosion in use of the mobile web as new technology enables genuine step-changes in the quality of user experience.
Asam Bashir wrote:
You’ll have to wait for the Apple smart phone to see revolution in input methods - seems there are two Apple phone developments, a simple iPhone with iPod features, and then a more advanced smart phone with funky gesture driven multiple GUI device that will compete in the same market place as the N95 but not scheduled for role out till Q3 2007.
http://appleinsider.com/article.php?id=2283
Google already involved in deep projects with Apple for the forthcoming Leopard Mac OS X 10.5 release including GPS meta-tag information iLife applications - Would be nice if they can work together to bring Google Earth like GUI for GPS enabled smartphone application. If anyone comes out with a 640 x 480 screen on a mobile next year, it will be Apple.
Posted 08 Dec 2006 at 4:55 pm ¶
simon wrote:
I think it will be fascinating to see what Apple comes up with for its phone product range. It’s not that easy to build a great Phone OS; if it turns out they’re building their own, then I expect it will need a few iterations before it works well.
But, there’s no doubt that Apple is one of the very few companies that understands how to design great consumer electronics products. In time, I think we must expect great things from their phones.
And I tend to believe Kevin Rose when he’s had a few beers! So, I guess we’ll see that first phone in January. It sounds kinda neat.
Posted 08 Dec 2006 at 9:11 pm ¶