Simon’s Blog

It’s being reported that an analyst group has predicted Java EE will die within five years. Give me strength.

What’s my problem with this? Let me illustrate with an example. I could, say, predict that Microsoft Windows will be dead in ten years. Depending on your particular viewpoint, you might think, “You know what, he’s right.” Or you might think, “No way, Windows will still be going strong in ten years.” Either way, however, in ten years time, everyone would most certainly have forgotten about the prediction. And that means I wouldn’t be called in getting the prediction wrong.

That, then, is the issue I have with people making predictions five or ten years out. There’s no accountability. They get some headlines now, and don’t get called on having bad judgement as times passes. The point is, if these guys are so certain that Java EE will be dead in five years, they should be able to tell me, quite accurately, just how many Java EE developers will abandon the platform in favour of Ruby on Rails in the next week; the next month; the next three months; the next six months; and the next year.

What’s the betting they can’t do that? Useless. And pointless.